Which regional daily will be the first to go digital-only?

I am sure that during 2015 we will witness more regional newspaper publishers giving up on print issues in favour of going digital-only.

Several weeklies have made that move already, but could we be on the verge of regional dailies taking the plunge?

I note that a former editor of the Scotsman, John McGurk, has suggested his old paper should give up its ink-on-paper version. On Scot-Buzz, a website he co-edits, he argues that it’s time to put the Scotsman out of its misery”.

He over-stated his case by claiming that the paper isn’t profitable. HoldTheFrontPage quotes a spokeswoman for the Scotsman’s publisher, Johnston Press, who pointed out that it still turns a profit and, moreover, the company is investing in a future “both online and in print”.

Despite the rebuttal, McGurk touches on a subject that is exercising publishers all the time. At what point does publishing in print make no sense?

The answer could not be more straightforward: when it is no longer profitable to do so. Decisions on whether to say “stop the presses” for the final time are purely commercial and print advertising revenue, although in decline, means that printing newspapers remains viable.

It amazes journalists like McGurk - and members of the public too - that publishers continue to publish titles with such low circulation figures.

He points to the fact that the Scotsman sold an average of just 26,283 copies in the final six months of 2014. That’s a tiny fraction of its Edinburgh heartland, let alone its wider circulation area.

But Johnston Press wouldn’t go to the trouble of buying the newsprint and ink, paying for printing and distribution, and even giving away copies for free, unless it made business sense.

I continually register my own McGurk-like amazement that Newsquest/Gannett continues to publish print copies of the Brighton Argus when its daily sale is little more than 13,000. I accept, however, that a company noted for its lust for profit wouldn’t do it as a public service.

By chance, I spoke in a discussion on a BBC Radio Wales programme this morning about the low sales of titles that serve the principality.

A couple of callers came on to bemoan the state of the printed editions of their local papers, airing the usual criticisms - nothing in them, no news, too many adverts (ha!), too much sport, too much of the wrong sport... ‘twas ever thus.

One caller spoke about his local weekly having no reporters on the ground and being produced miles away. The result, in his view, was a lack of genuine news about the area.

It struck me later that publishers may be doing long-term harm to their brands by publishing such thin gruel. It is possible that many people never will transfer to their online versions if they do not retain the trust and affection of their audiences.

Let me finish by sticking my neck out and predicting a regional daily title, one with a great history, that will go digital-only very soon: the Birmingham Mail.

I said as much a couple of weeks ago when reporting that the Mail had lost 20.5% of its sale in the last half of 2014 compared to same period the year before.

So, just 30,597 copies of the Mail were sold in a city, Britain’s second most populous, with more than one million residents. Although I have no idea about the economic state of Trinity Mirror’s Midlands division, it would not surprise me if the company is close to that tipping point when it is no longer commercially sensible to go on printing.

Trinity Mirror, whose chief executive, Simon Fox, is committed to a digital future, will be aware that people are reading the Mail’s website because its browser total rose by a remarkable 111%.

It’s only a hunch, of course. But some day, sooner rather than later, regional dailies like the Scotsman, the Argus and the Mail will cease print publication.

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