I cannot imagine these talks between Trinity Mirror and Northern & Shell over a possible acquisition by the former of “certain newspaper assets” owned by the latter will bear fruit.
A sale at a good, or even reasonable, price would be an achievement for N&S owner Richard Desmond. But what’s really in it for Trinity’s chief executive Simon Fox?
Both men are publishing national titles with declining print sales and - despite ever-improving online audiences - are dealing with declining revenue.
But Fox’s newspapers - the Daily and Sunday Mirror, and Sunday People - are in better shape than Desmond’s Daily and Sunday Express, Daily Star and Daily Star Sunday.
So there is no point in Fox, who is pursuing a digital strategy anyway, taking on print products that have no realistic hope of being turned around.
I can understand why he is - to use the phrase in an email to his concerned Mirror staff - “evaluating certain” N&S assets. After all, it’s sensible for a company to accept the opportunity to peep into a rival company’s books.
But what possible value would there be in, say, acquiring the Daily Star? It would be absurd to merge it with the Daily Mirror. Aside from the fact that both are red-tops, they are beasts of a different colour. The content, the culture and the politics are entirely distinct.
Anyway, the lesson of newspaper history is that the merging of titles does not result in greatly increased circulation. It may look attractive to add the Mirror’s current 886,390 average sale to the Star’s 425,614. In fact, the likely outcome would be no improvement whatsoever to the Mirror total.
Just as unlikely is a Mirror-Express merger. The latter’s 448,256 buyers would hardly wish to switch to a pro-Labour and pro-European Union daily.
I know people don’t necessarily buy pop papers for their politics, but the Mirror’s USP is its support for the Labour party. Express readers will not find it acceptable.
I suppose it’s just about possible to make out a case for merging the Sunday People (now selling 379,943 copies an issue) with the Daily Star Sunday (301,377 copies). But that would be a marginal matter, hardly worth the trouble, and would only delay the death of the People rather than save it.
There is, of course, another important aspect to take into account should any deal be done: the reduction of ownership diversity. Would there be a competition problem in allowing Trinity Mirror to swallow, or even take a slice of, Express Newspapers? I think not.
Then there is the money. Desmond is renowned for driving hard bargains. Despite Trinity Mirror’s recent financial improvement and Fox’s hint about going on the acquisition trail, can he afford it?
I suppose the Express Newspapers’ £85m pension deficit could be accommodated in spite of Trinity Mirror’s own £301m deficit, but (as a Mirror pensioner myself) I wonder if that would be wise.
Overall, no deal involving any of the Express titles makes sense for Trinity Mirror. It would appear that both Desmond and Fox are engaged in fishing expeditions. But neither looks likely to make a catch.